It Never Rains it Pours: June 23

Through the Eyes of a Foreigner

By Andrew Engel

It never Rains, it pours.

I was caught in a thunder storm in the city a week or so ago.  The rain sheeted down in Biblical proportions. The street turned into a canal.

 I found myself wedged between two walls and under an awning that had sprung leaks.

With no attractive options and no escape route, I did what any sensible Filipino would do.  Took off my shoes and socks, rolled up my pants, and made a dash for my destination. 

Come to think of it, Filipinos are smart enough not to wear shoes and socks in the rainy season!  (Filipino 1: Foreigner 0).

Dripping and barefoot in the foyer of the Mindanao Times trying my best to appear inconspicuous, I got to thinking about global warming and sea levels.

Imagine what would happen to the city if the worst fears about future sea level increases were to be realised and the waters of Davao Gulf were to penetrate the city.  It would make the flooding we often see in downtown streets and elsewhere during heavy rain seem trifling.

Is it possible?  The good news is, not in the foreseeable future. 

The bad news is that some scientists are predicting sea level rises over the next couple of hundred years that would be cataclysmic for Davao, and many parts of the world.

In economic terms the costs of such a calamity would far outweigh the expense of abatement that is at the centre of global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.  That is, the efforts being made to shift from carbon intensive industries to alternative sources of energy production.

What do we actually know about rising sea levels?  Well, there is a lot written and many contrary views.  Let me give you an example.

The Unites Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been reported projecting that the maximum sea level increases in the next 100 years will be 81cm (32 inches).  Researchers cited in the journal, Nature Geoscience, concluded the IPCC estimate was too low and that the actual maximum could be double the IPCC figure: 163cm (64 inches).

But it gets worse.  Those researchers claimed that in the last period of global warming some 100,000 years ago during the so-called “interglacial period” sea levels rose six meters (20 feet) above current levels.

Gulp, or rather, gurgle!

Can we believe such predictions?  I find it difficult to answer with certainty, but I have my doubts.

It doesn’t help when I see that the article is based on reports published in 2007. But my scepticism stems primarily from the fact the researcher’s figures misrepresent the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report published the same year.

The IPCC Report actually provided a range from 18 to 59cm by the end of this century. 

There are so many claims, dire predictions, and doomsday scenarios being written that it is hard to know exactly what is going to happen. 

The bottom line is that no one knows with certainty what it will be!  The IPCC climate scientists have made a best attempt to forecast a range of possible outcomes based on scientific methodology, which only holds until it is disproved.  And I am sure those very scientists would be the first to admit they could be wrong.

I’m reminded of the impossible task of predicting the weather.  It was once put to me that to model weather predictions accurately one would need to be able to calculate everything down to the impact on air pressure movement caused by a single butterflies’ wings as it took off from a shrub in South America!

OK, I give up, that can’t be done.  I hope our climate scientists have better luck.

I think we can agree on one thing, along with most of the world’s leading scientists.  The climate is undergoing change and that human pollution is contributing to this warming.  Further that the warming of the oceans and the melting ice caps is causing sea levels to rise.  By how much and over what period, well, we’ll get back to you.

Now, I’m not a climate change denier, but then like most readers I’m not a climate scientist.  Neither am I a meteorologist, nor a politician.  I rely on experts to inform me and politicians to act on my behalf. And I have sympathy for our political leaders trying to make sense of it all in their attempts to protect our communities.

While some might see climate change as the “greatest moral challenge of our times”, the fact that the tiger is not yet at the door focuses us on more immediate problems.  And there are plenty of them.  The lack of scientific certainty, even a high degree of probability can’t be claimed, makes the task of responding all the more difficult.

Some will say it is best to plan for a worse-case scenario.  Yes, it probably is, provided the price to be paid by current generations is not too high.  Let’s be honest, a majority of us are not unnerved by events being predicted 50 or 100 years into the future.

Look, things might get really bad for future generations and concern is warranted.  Sea level rises of the magnitude some predict would inundate low-lying lands around the world. Flooding that occurs once a century could become a yearly event.  Weather “episodes” could increase in magnitude. Beach erosion, the loss of barrier reefs, contamination of fresh water are a few of the dangers lurking and beginning to show themselves.

Let’s hope our best and brightest can get a better handle on the changing climate soon and that a consensus on the best course of action can be reached by all.  Then our politicians can be guided by information that helps them make decisions that protect us and our children’s children.

Meanwhile, I’m off to buy a pair of tsinelas.

PS.  If you want to have some fun, have a look at the site www.flood.firetree.net. It models, using Google Maps, sea level rises and you can see the impact on Davao.  Don’t take it as truth; after all it’s just another person trying to measure the air pressure variations of a butterfly taking off in South America.

(You can email Andrew or comment at, engelmint@hotmail.com)