Book Review: The J-Curve: a New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall.

Ian Bremmer and Andrew Engel's take on Israel, Democracy and the Territories.

Ian Bremmer's book, "The J-Curve", is a remarkable and revolutionary book that illustrates how nations move from closed authoritarian societies to open and active participants in the global community. It is remarkable because it is a ridiculously easy read, accessible to anyone that might be curious as to why Iraq fell apart the way it did, what is going on in Russia with Tzar Putin, and how a country becomes democratic - or undemocratic as it faces existential threats.

The graph on the left shows the relationship between stable and open governments. Notice that a government does not need to be open in order to be stable (hint hint, Iraq). The X axis shows Openness, and the Y axis shows stability. As a government attempts to become more open, it moves down to the depths of the curve and becomes less stable. Ideally there are democratic institutions in place to help the transition. If not (IRAQ!!!) then there is little chance of moving up the curve.


I could ramble about any country on any position on this chart, but I will save that for when I am a tenured professor and I get paid to bore people. Lets talk about Israel. It is an amazing country of contrasts and contradictions: there is a trinity (wrong word to use?) of dissonance between Israel as a democracy, Israel as a Jewish state, and the biblical land of Israel (West Bank and parts of Jordan). These all do work together, but in varying degrees. How Jewish the state is can be limited by the courts (this is no Saudi Arabia), and because realism succeeded over idealism, David Ben-Gurion limited the territorial aspirations of the newfound state. This was the case until the 1967 War, in which Israel obtained the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza from its bellicose neighbors.


Israel is the only true Democracy in the Middle East (and Israeli Arabs are some of the freest Arabs in the Middle East), which places it on the top right side of the graph. But in order to be a Jewish state, and to avoid a bloody, fragmented fate that befell Lebanon and the former Yugoslavia, Israel needs to maintain a Jewish majority. So what to do about the West Bank? Excluding the West Bank, Jews make up 80% of the population, with the West Bank, its 60%. There is no way in hell Israel would make them citizens; that would invite a civil war. But Israel cannot indefinitely hold onto the territories. But look at Gaza. Israel gave the Palestinians their chance at self rule there and all the foreign aid and development, housing blocks that could have been used for their own good, were burned. The legacy of the pull-out is the harsh reality of Qassam attacks.

Quick Rant: The biggest irony is that the Palestinians use terror as a means for their end, a Palestinian state (never mind its not beside Israel, but in place of Israel). But their use of terror is what prohibits them from having a state. Why would Israel give them the West Bank if that means they have the ability to shoot rockets into Israel from wherever they wish, just like Gaza. In military terms its called strategic depth, Israel had it in Gaza before it pulled out. Now just look at the mess.

But back to democracy and demographics. Bremmer asserts that Israel's bigest threat is not external, but internal. It is doubtful the Israeli-Arab population will become a large enough minority capable of dismantling the Jewish state, which would surely lead to a civil war. But the territories... Israel cannot relieve itself of them now, that would invite more terror, but something will need to be done when the conditions are ripe. Indefinite holding 2.4 million Palestinians without granting them citizenship hurts Israeli democracy, but granting it to them will destroy it. Israel is now on the right side of the graph, but the territories threaten to move it back down to the left, making the states less open, less stable, and less of a democracy. Bremmer ends this chapter with a question Israel's leaders will have to answer "what are Israel's boundaries and what kind of a state is it?"

You can buy the book here.